A nomogram to predict the risk of bleeding after discharge from stent-assisted aneurysm embolization in a Chinese population

Abstract

Abstract Background The occurrence of bleeding events may seriously affect the prognosis of patients with Stent-Assisted Coil (SAC) aneurysms. A nomogram can provide a personalized, more accurate risk estimate based on predictors. We, therefore, developed a nomogram to predict the probability of bleeding events in patients with stent-assisted aneurysm embolization. Methods We performed a single-center retrospective analysis of data collected from patients undergoing stent-assisted aneurysm embolization between January 2018 and December 2021. Forward stepwise logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of adverse events of bleeding after stent-assisted embolization and to establish nomograms. Discrimination and calibration of this model using the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) and the calibration plot. The model is internally validated by using resampling (1000 replicates). Results A total of 131 patients were collected, and a total of 118 patients met the study criteria. The predictors included in the nomogram were Body Mass Index(BMI), AAi, and MA-ADP. The model showed good resolving power with a ROC area of ​​0.893 (95% CI: 0.834 ~ 0.952) for this model with good calibration. Conclusion The nomogram can be used to individualize, visualize and accurately predict the risk probability of bleeding events after stent-assisted embolization of aneurysms.