The Aluminium Demand Risk of Terawatt Photovoltaics for Net Zero Emissions by 2050

Abstract

Abstract The broad electrification scenario of recent photovoltaics roadmaps predicts that by 2050 we will need more than 60 TW of photovoltaics installed and be producing up to 4.5 TW of additional capacity each year if we are to rapidly reduce emissions to ‘net-zero’ and limit global warming to < 2°C. Given that after 2020, just over 700 GWp was installed, this represents an enormous manufacturing task which will create a demand for a number of metals. We show here that growth to 60 TW of photovoltaics could require up to 480 Mt of aluminium by 2050. A key concern for this aluminium demand is its large global warming potential. We predict the cumulative emissions arising from emission reduction scenarios in China and show that rapid decarbonisation of the electricity grid within 10 years will be required if they are to be kept below 1000 Mt CO2e by 2050.