Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6,000 years

Abstract

Abstract Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean-atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6,000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6,000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only modes that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. There are marked multi-centennial oscillations superimposed on the long-term trend in monsoon rainfall which are strongly associated with multi-centennial oscillations in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in all models. However, the influence of different modes on interannual to multi-decadal rainfall variability is not consistent across the models. This is driven in one case by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and changes in Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, by tropical sea surface temperature changes in another, and in the fourth model by a combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, multiple inter-basin teleconnections are associated with significant rainfall anomalies in each model.