Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Toba Region Based on ERA5-Land Data with Quantile Mapping Bias Correction

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is a serious problem that can cause global variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. This global variation can affect the water availability of lakes. In this study, trends in temperature and rainfall in the Lake Toba area for 40 years (1981–2020) were analyzed using ERA5-Land data corrected with observation station data utilizing the quantile mapping bias correction method. Corrected ERA5-Land data were used in this study to show spatial patterns and trends. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope tests were carried out to see the magnitude of the trend. A comparison of temperature and rainfall against their baseline period (1951–1980) was also investigated. The results of this study show that climate change has affected the trend of increasing temperature and rainfall in the Lake Toba area, with an increase in temperature of 0.006°C per year and an average rainfall of 0.71 mm per year. In general, significant changes in the increase of temperature and rainfall occurred in the last decade, with an increase in temperature of 0.24°C and rainfall of 22%. The study of the impact of climate change expected to be useful for policymakers in managing water resources in the Lake Toba area.