Spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo before and during the implementation of the Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan: A cross-sectional study from 2000-2021

Abstract

Abstract Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) implemented the first strategic Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan (MCEP) in 2008–2012. Two subsequent MCEPs have since been implemented covering the periods 2013–2017 and 2018–2022. The current study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera over the recent 22-year period to determine the impact of the MCEPs on cholera epidemics, establish lessons learned and provide an evidence-based foundation to improve the implementation of the next MCEP (2023–2027). Methods In this cross-sectional study, secondary weekly epidemiological cholera data covering the 2000–2021 period was extracted from the DRC Ministry of Health surveillance databases. The data series was divided into four periods: pre-MCEP 2003–2007 (pre-MCEP), first MCEP (MCEP-1), second MCEP (MCEP-2) and third MCEP (MCEP-3). For each period, we assessed the overall cholera profiles and seasonal patterns. We analyzed the spatial dynamics and identified cholera risk clusters at the province level. We also assessed the evolution of cholera sanctuary zones identified during each period. Results During the 2000–2021 period, the DRC recorded 520,024 suspected cases and 12,561 deaths. The endemic provinces remain the most affected with more than 75% of cases, five of the six endemic provinces were identified as risk clusters during each MCEP period (North Kivu, South Kivu, Tanganyika, Haut-Lomami and Haut-Katanga). Several health zones were identified as cholera sanctuary zones during the study period: 14 health zones during MCEP-1, 14 health zones during MCEP-2 and 29 health zones during MCEP-3. Over the course of the study period, seasonal cholera patterns remained constant, with one peak during the dry season and one peak during the rainy season. Conclusion Despite the implementation of three MCEPs, the cholera context in the DRC remains largely unchanged since the pre-MCEP period (p-value > 0.05). To better orient cholera elimination activities, the method used to classify priority health zones should be optimized by analyzing epidemiological; water, sanitation and hygiene; socio-economic; environmental and health indicators at the local level. Additional studies should also aim to identify bottlenecks and gaps in the coordination and strategic efforts of cholera elimination interventions at the local, national and international levels.