Global warming increases the chance of success of maize-wheat double cropping in Europe

Abstract

Abstract Double cropping can help reduce the risk of food insecurity by harvesting two crops each year instead of one. By increasing the rate of plant development and shortening growing seasons, global warming is likely to favour this type of system in areas where it is not yet being applied. Here we assess the probability of success of double cropping maize and wheat in Europe under global warming. We compare the caloric productivity of this double cropping system with that of conventional single cropping systems with maize and wheat in rotation, using a hybrid modelling approach combining a process-based model and machine learning. Our results show that the decrease in caloric production of simple maize and wheat cropping systems due to climate change could be offset by the adoption of a double cropping system. We show that the geographical area where the double cropping system could be successfully applied will be 3.6 times higher in 2100 than the current level, due to the effect of warming (range from 2.6 to 4.8 Deg. C), leading to an increase in calorie production throughout Europe. In Southern Europe, the expected increase in calorie production reaches even 27.3% (19.2% for maize, 8.1% for wheat) compared to a single cropping system. Our study highlights the potential of double cropping as a relevant adaptation strategy for cropping systems in Europe.