Trends and Forecasts of Industrial Carbon Emission Changes in China's Major Energy Provinces

Abstract

Abstract The industrial sector is an important source of carbon emissions. This study took Guizhou Province as an example, and based on the energy balance sheet and national and Guizhou provincial statistical data, the IPCC method was used to measure the industrial carbon emissions of Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2021.The STIRPAT model,ridge regression model and scenario analysis method predicted the industrial carbon emissions in Guizhou province from 2022 to 2060.The results showed that (1) during the period of 2000–2021, the total amount of industrial carbon emissions in Guizhou Province was generally on the rise, and the carbon emission intensity experienced a trend of increasing and then changing; (2) the industrial energy consumption structure in Guizhou Province is dominated by coal and electricity, but the proportion of coal has declined in recent years, and the proportion of electricity has risen with fluctuations; and (3) different scenarios reached peak emissions in 2030–2038. The low-carbon scenario corresponded to the smallest peak, will peak in 2030. The uncontrolled inertia scenario and the energy-saving scenario, with smaller emission reductions, were unable to realize the "dual-carbon" target.