Evaluation of CMIP5 Decadal Precipitation at Catchment level

Abstract

Abstract The fidelity of the decadal experiment in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) has been examined, over different climate variables for different temporal and spatial scales, in many previous studies. Most of the studies were, however, for the temperature and temperature-based climate indices. A quite limited study was conducted on precipitation of decadal experiment and no attention was paid to a catchment level. This study evaluates the performances of eight GCMs (MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC5, CMCC-CM, and CanCM4) for the monthly hindcast precipitation of decadal experiment over the Brisbane River catchment in Queensland, Australia. First, the GCMs datasets were spatially interpolated onto a spatial resolution of 0.05o×0.05o (5 km×5 km) matching with the grids of observed data and then were cut for the catchment. Next, model outputs are evaluated for temporal skills, dry and wet periods, and total precipitation (over time and space) based on the observed values. Comparing the skills, models are divided into three categories (Category-I: MIROC4h, EC-EARTH and MRI-CGCM3; Category-II: MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR; and Category-III: MIROC5, CanCM4, and CMCC-CM). Three multi-model ensembles’ mean (MMEMs) are formed using the arithmetic mean of Category-I (MMEM1), Category-I and II (MMEM2), and all eight models (MMEM3). The performances of MMEMs are also assessed using the same skill tests and found MMEM2 performed best which suggests evaluating the models is an important step before the formation of MMEM using GCM models.