Abstract
Earthquake is one of the natural disasters that can cause significant loss of life and property. The unpredictable nature of earthquakes distinguishes them from the other natural disasters, making them a primary topic of crisis management. There are some extensive and carefully-planned measures to deal with this crisis, one of which is the management of rescue forces to rescue people trapped in collapsed buildings. Research has shown that the chance of trapped people surviving after 72 hours is almost zero. In this study, the survivability of people trapped in collapsed buildings was modeled with the time elapsed and the population density. The model of Coburn and Spence was used as the base method for estimating the survivability of trapped people. In this study, buildings were classified into eight categories. A fuzzy inference engine was then built with the time elapsed and building’s type as input, and survivability as its sole output. The data related to district 11 of Tehran was given to this fuzzy inference engine to generate survivability maps for 8, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours after earthquakes with an intensity of 7 and 9 on the Mercalli scale. The results showed that in the both Mercalli 7 and 9, buildings in the northern part of the area rapidly collapse, trapping a large number of people, which leads to decrease in survivability in this area. However, survivability decreases with a nearly constant pattern in other parts. According, urban planners can adopt preventive measures and build rescue and relief sites in these areas before the expected earthquake.