Optimizing Regional Earthquake Mitigation Investment Strategies

Abstract

Regional mitigation analysis is a systematic procedure to determine how much to spend on mitigation versus post-event reconstruction and to prioritize alternative mitigation strategies. It requires at least the following information: magnitude and character of the regional risk, costs and benefits associated with all possible mitigation alternatives, available budget, and specific regional objectives for risk management. Currently available loss estimation models provide increasingly comprehensive estimates of regional risk, but offer little guidance about how to use that information to make mitigation resource allocation decisions. This paper describes a linear program developed to support systematic regional earthquake mitigation analysis, and illustrates its application through a case study in Los Angeles County. Results suggest which buildings—by structural type, occupancy type, and census tract location—should be upgraded so as to minimize total mitigation and expected post-earthquake reconstruction costs.