International shipping in a world below 2oC

Author:

Müller-Casseres Eduardo1ORCID,Leblanc Florian2,Berg Maarten van den3ORCID,Fragkos Panagiotis4ORCID,Dessens Olivier5,Naghash Hesam6ORCID,Draeger Rebecca1,Gallic Thomas Le7ORCID,Tagomori Isabela S.3,Tsiropoulos Ioannis8,Emmerling Johannes9ORCID,Baptista Luiz Bernardo10ORCID,Vuuren Detlef van3ORCID,Giannousakis Anastasis8,Drouet Laurent11ORCID,Portugal-Pereira Joana12ORCID,de Boer Harmen Sytze13ORCID,Tsanakas Nikolaos8,Rochedo Pedro RR14,Szklo Alexandre14,Schaeffer Roberto15ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

2. Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED

3. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

4. E3Modelling & National Technical University of Athens

5. University College London

6. Delft University of Technology

7. CIRED

8. E3Modelling S.A.

9. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

10. University Rio de Janeiro

11. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)

12. Imperial College London

13. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

14. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

15. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, the decarbonisation of international shipping has become an important policy goal. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for around 0.75 GtCO2/yr. Here, we perform the first multi-IAM analysis of international shipping, drawing on the results of six global models. Results indicate the need for decreasing emissions in the next decades, with reductions up to 88% in 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonisation of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes of conventional maritime fuels.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

Reference60 articles.

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