Performance, Cost, and Market Share of Conventional Vehicle Efficiency Technologies?: Retrospective Comparison of Regulatory Document Projections for Corporate Average Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Standards

Abstract

This study conducted an analysis of regulatory documents on current energy- and greenhouse gas–relevant conventional vehicle efficiency technologies in the corporate average fuel economy standards (2017 to 2025) and greenhouse gas rulemaking context by NHTSA and EPA. The focus was on identifying what technologies today—as estimated now (2015 to 2016)—receive higher or lower expectations with regard to effectiveness, cost, and consumer adoption than what experts projected during the 2010 to 2011 rulemaking period. A broad range of conventional vehicle efficiency technologies, including gasoline engine and diesel engine, transmission, accessory, hybrid, and vehicle body technologies, was investigated in this analysis. Most assessed technologies were found to have had better competitiveness than expected with regard to effectiveness or costs, or both, with costs and market penetration more difficult to predict than technology effectiveness.