International Freight and Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by 2050

Abstract

A new method to project the impacts of global trade scenarios on international freight flows is presented. The model uses international trade scenarios developed by the Economics Department of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 2004–2060 with alternative liberalization scenarios. A global freight network model is developed, and current exports data from Eurostat and the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean are used to calibrate a model converting trade in value into freight volumes (in tonne-kilometers) assigned to a routable transport network for the period 2010–2050. The results highlight the impact of changes in global trade flows and carbon dioxide emissions related to international trade and raise several policy implications. The outputs suggest that increases in transport flow will be significant, especially within Asia and on routes used for export–import activities from and to this region.