Tracking Transportation and Industrial Production across a Nation

Abstract

With the Freight Analysis Framework as its primary data source, the RUBMRIO (random utility–based multiregional input–output) model is applied for U.S. transportation, production, and trade across more than 3,000 contiguous counties. Driven by foreign export demand, RUBMRIO uses input–output expenditure shares and a nested logit model for shipment origins and mode to simulate trade patterns of commodities among the counties. Network and export demand scenarios were examined for their effects on the distribution of trade flows and production. Changes in export demands for various commodities highlighted the importance of food and petroleum manufacturing sectors in production and labor-expenditure shifts. Transport cost reductions had greater effects on total production than did similar cost increases. The most affected U.S. counties were those centrally located. Changes in travel times along the I-40 corridor had ripple effects on trade patterns everywhere with the greatest changes observed around the corridor's midpoint.