Uncertainty in Operational Analysis of Two-Lane Highways

Abstract

The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000 provides methods to estimate performance measures and the level of service for different types of traffic facilities. Because neither the input data nor the model parameters are totally accurate, there is an element of uncertainty in the results. An analytical method was used to estimate the uncertainty in the service measures of two-lane highways. The input data and the model parameters were considered as random variables. The propagation of error through the arithmetic operations in the HCM 2000 methodology was estimated. Finally, the uncertainty in the average travel speed and percent time spent following was analyzed, and four approaches were considered to deal with uncertainty in the level of service.