Assessment of Pedestrian Risk at Crossings with Kinematic-Probabilistic Model

Abstract

One of the primary road safety problems in Poland is accidents involving pedestrians. Accident statistics indicate a significant 26.5% share of pedestrians in accidents and their consequences; that is, the number of injured and killed pedestrians exceeds one-third of all accident fatalities. Many factors affect accidents involving pedestrians, such as those related to road characteristics, speed, and traffic volume. The authors used surrogate measures of road safety risk assessment that included speed change on the approach to a crossing. This assessment was carried out by applying a model taking into account fatality risk as a function of impact speed for pedestrians struck by the front of a passenger car and the initial vehicle speed. Initial speed was analyzed in relation to vehicle speeds recorded on the approach to various pedestrian crossings with different signs and locations. The presented model can support evaluation of road safety for various infrastructural measures at pedestrian crossings while taking into account a number of variables such as lighting and surface conditions as well as the distance at which pedestrians are noticed in the moment when braking begins. On the basis of research results, hazard levels caused by the sudden appearance of a pedestrian on the road, depending on the type of pedestrian crossing, were evaluated. Ratios of the probability of a road accident at compared types of pedestrian crossings were evaluated as well as the probability of fatalities caused by intrusion on the pedestrian crossing.