Big Data Is Decision Science

Abstract

Data science has been proven to be an important asset to support better decision making in a variety of settings, whether it is for a scientist to better predict climate change for a company to better predict sales or for a government to anticipate voting preferences. In this research, the authors leverage random forest (RF) as one of the most effective machine learning techniques using big data to predict vaccine intent in five European countries. The findings support the idea that outside of vaccine features, building adequate perception of the risk of contamination, and securing institutional and peer trust are key nudges to convert skeptics to get vaccinated against COVID-19. What machine learning techniques further add beyond traditional regression techniques is some extra granularity in factors affecting vaccine preferences (twice more factors than logistic regression). Other factors that emerge as predictors of vaccine intent are compliance appetite with non-pharmaceutical protective measures as well as perception of the crisis duration.