Incorporating Inertia in Mode Choice and Influential Factors of Car Stickiness: Implications for Shifts to Public Transit

Abstract

To explore efficient strategies of adjusting travel mode structure and support scientific implements of public transit system, this paper investigated travelers’ mode choice behavior in a multimodal network incorporating inertia in utility specifications. Comprehensive stated preference surveys considering four modes and four key decisive variables were designed, and face-to-face investigations were conducted to collect reliable data in Shanghai. The discrete choice technique considering mode-specific inertias was employed for modeling. The influencing factors of car stickiness were particularly explored. The results show that there are significant and mode-specific inertias in travelers’ choices of travel mode. The inertia of car users shifting to other modes is considerably large compared to inertias of public transit users. Travel time reliability and crowdedness in public transit are identified to be crucial factors influencing car users’ willingness to use public transit. Demographic attributes (age, income, education level and gender), spatial context features (commuting duration) and the regime of flexible work time are found to be significant influential variables of car stickiness. Moreover, direct and cross elasticity analyses were executed to show practical implications of shifting car users to public transit. The results provide serviceable support for transport planning and strategy making.