Bayesian Updating in Property Protection System

Abstract

The article focuses on the implementation of the Bayesian updating method in creating a model of the protection system. This implementation makes it possible to incorporate the new information obtained during the lifetime of the protection system. The inclusion of new information ultimately makes it possible to refine the results of the model and thus increase its effectiveness to support decision-making. The approach of using the Bayesian updating method is given in a specific example. The possibility of expert estimation of input parameter values and application of Bayesian updating for the purposes of quantitative revision of security level assessment is also presented.