A practical exploration of land cover impacts on surface and air temperature when they are most consequential

Abstract

Abstract Widespread shifts in land cover and land management (LCLM) are being incentivized as tools to mitigate climate change, creating an urgent need for prognostic assessments of how LCLM impacts surface energy balance and temperature. Historically, observational studies have tended to focus on how LCLM impacts surface temperature (T surf), usually at annual timescales. However, understanding the potential for LCLM change to confer climate adaptation benefits, or to produce unintended adverse consequences, requires careful consideration of impacts on both T surf and the near-surface air temperature (T a,local) when they are most consequential for ecosystem and societal well-being (e.g. on hot summer days). Here, long-term data from 130 AmeriFlux towers distributed between 19–71 °N are used to systematically explore LCLM impacts on both T surf and T a,local, with an explicit focus on midday summer periods when adaptive cooling is arguably most needed. We observe profound impacts of LCLM on T surf at midday, frequently amounting to differences of 10 K or more from one site to the next. LCLM impacts on T a,local are smaller but still significant, driving variation of 5–10 K across sites. The magnitude of LCLM impacts on both T surf and T a,local is not well explained by plant functional type, climate regime, or albedo; however, we show that LCLM shifts that enhance ET or increase canopy height are likely to confer a local mid-day cooling benefit for both T surf and T a,local most of the time. At night, LCLM impacts on temperature are much smaller, such that averaging across the diurnal cycle will underestimate the potential for land cover to mediate microclimate when the consequences for plant and human well-being are most stark. Finally, during especially hot periods, land cover impacts on T a,local and T surf are less coordinated, and ecosystems that tend to cool the air during normal conditions may have a diminished capacity to do so when it is very hot. We end with a set of practical recommendations for future work evaluating the biophysical impacts and adaptation potential of LCLM shifts.