Mathematical model for assessing environmental risk

Abstract

Abstract The article considers the urgent problem of assessing environmental risks. The problem of environmental protection is now becoming global. This is primarily due to the growth of industrial production and large-scale mining. To quantify damage, the concept of environmental insurance is introduced. This means that generally accepted insurance risks are directly applied in the field of environmental protection. In addition to the general formula for a comprehensive risk assessment to predict harmful environmental impacts, it would be natural to take into account the results of these impacts over time. In this study, the authors proposed more detailed mathematical models of risk factors. We got a calculated and analytical expression in which the probability of an insured event by risk factors varies with time. Examples of models for predicting harmful effects in the environment are given. In solving this problem, probabilistic mathematical models were used. The proposed methods and tools allow taking into account possible environmental risk factors at all stages of decision-making. This will allow in practice to avoid the occurrence of adverse economic consequences in the implementation of economic activity. This contributes to the prospects of implementing business strategies for integrating environmental requirements into their activities.