Information cascade prediction of complex networks based on physics-informed graph convolutional network

Author:

Yu Dingguo,Zhou Yijie,Zhang Suiyu,Li Wenbing,Small Michael,Shang Ke-keORCID

Abstract

Abstract Cascade prediction aims to estimate the popularity of information diffusion in complex networks, which is beneficial to many applications from identifying viral marketing to fake news propagation in social media, estimating the scientific impact (citations) of a new publication, and so on. How to effectively predict cascade growth size has become a significant problem. Most previous methods based on deep learning have achieved remarkable results, while concentrating on mining structural and temporal features from diffusion networks and propagation paths. Whereas, the ignorance of spread dynamic information restricts the improvement of prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Physics-informed graph convolutional network (PiGCN) for cascade prediction, which combines explicit features (structural and temporal features) and propagation dynamic status in learning diffusion ability of cascades. Specifically, PiGCN is an end-to-end predictor, firstly splitting a given cascade into sub-cascade graph sequence and learning local structures of each sub-cascade via graph convolutional network , then adopting multi-layer perceptron to predict the cascade growth size. Moreover, our dynamic neural network, combining PDE-like equations and a deep learning method, is designed to extract potential dynamics of cascade diffusion, which captures dynamic evolution rate both on structural and temporal changes. To evaluate the performance of our proposed PiGCN model, we have conducted extensive experiment on two well-known large-scale datasets from Sina Weibo and ArXIv subject listing HEP-PH to verify the effectiveness of our model. The results of our proposed model outperform the mainstream model, and show that dynamic features have great significance for cascade size prediction.

Funder

ARC Discovery Project

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

Major projects of the National Social Science Fund of China

National Social Science Funds of China

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

IOP Publishing

Reference46 articles.

1. A survey of information cascade analysis: models, predictions and recent advances;Zhou;ACM Comput. Surv.,2021

2. Capturing dynamics of information diffusion in sns: a survey of methodology and techniques;Huacheng;ACM Comput. Surv.,2021

3. Information diffusion prediction via recurrent cascades convolution;Chen,2019

4. Predicting future links with new nodes in temporal academic networks;Ran;J. Phys. Complex.,2022

5. Nature’s reach: narrow work has broad impact;Gates;Nature,2019

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3