Assessing the impacts of El Niño events on the Ecuadorian territory: a computational analysis of climatologies, anomalies, and deprivation index.

Abstract

Abstract This study conducts a comprehensive computational analysis to assess the climatological and socio-economic impacts of El Niño events on Ecuador, employing a detailed examination of climatologies, anomalies, and deprivation indices from 1980 to 2023. We identify significant climatic shifts and implications on regional vulnerabilities by utilizing the Essential Climate Variables dataset, alongside the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Niño 1+2 index for sea surface temperature anomalies. Additionally, the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI) is integrated to evaluate socio-economic impacts, highlighting areas of heightened deprivation. Notably, regions such as Chimborazo, Cotopaxi, Azuay, Tungurahua, and Bolívar emerge as significantly vulnerable, with pronounced susceptibility to temperature changes and precipitation anomalies. Several statistical methods, including Pearson Correlation, Spearman Rank Correlation, and Kendall’s Tau are employed to establish robust causal relationships between El Niño indices and climatic anomalies. The application of Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) provides deeper insights, particularly demonstrating causality from ONI to air temperature anomalies and from the Niño 1+2 index to precipitation anomalies. The findings of this study may suggest targeted strategies for local adaptation and resilience, contributing to a broader understanding of global climate variability.