Probabilistic and Statistical Analysis of Aviation Accidents

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the role that probabilistic and statistical analysis tools, such as ARIMA models, can have in the improvement of aviation safety levels. This is to be achieved by using available accident data, organizing it probabilistically, based on the different variables involved giving a better understanding of them as well as trough time series analyses forecast future values and trends. The results achieved provide valuable information usable by different aviation entities to be used on the accident prevention field through a proactive approach with regards to identified key areas.