A Comparison Between Triple Exponential Smoothing And Monte Carlo Methods In The Prediction Of Chicken Business Profit at Poultry Farm Livestock Of Jatipuro District

Abstract

Abstract With a prediction of profits, farmers can anticipate if the next harvest has experienced a slight profit or failed to harvest and so that farmers still have business capital and they do not experience a stable cage (bankrupt). This research objective is comparing two kind prediction method. Methods to be compared are Triple Exponential Smoothing and Monte Carlo methods. To find out the value of the compatibility of the two methods used MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) which can find out the percentage of the error value. This method are used for farmers financial management in predict their profit. To implement both methods, past data are used, namely the previous harvest profit data. Result of this study, by using Triple Exponential Smoothing method produces a MAPE value of 12.10% with a value of α = 0.3 and the Monte Carlo method produces a MAPE value of 40.58%.