Methodology of making organizational and technological decisions at the stage of operational management of construction operations based on the forecasting system

Abstract

Abstract The article discusses the issues of forecasting two key parameters of an investment and construction project: time and cost, while the building company is considered as a complex dynamic system. Taking into account the long-term nature of the creation of construction products and, as a consequence, the high level of work in progress, the need to use forecasting models is justified, both at short-term planning intervals (week, month) and at longer intervals (quarter, year). The article examines the formalized forecasting methods, gives a characteristic of the methods most widely used in practice. These methods include forecasting based on ARIMA models. DSTU has developed a pilot software package for an intelligent construction management system, which includes a software package for forecasting the time and cost parameters of a construction object at the stages of operational and current management.