Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Central Java Province, Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract Covid-19 is currently a pandemic that is considered as the biggest global threat that classified as the human-to-human transmissionable disease. This pandemic has affected practically all world countries. The aim of this paper is to construct a mathematical model for the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak and analyze its stability. The proposed mathematical model is STQIR (Susceptible, Traced, Quarantine, Infectious, Recovered) model. The form of the model is a nonlinear differential system with five variables. The step of the method i.e., compute the variables positifity, boundedness of solutions, and the basic reproduction number that computed using next generation matrix. Then the basic reproduction number will be used for testing the local stability of the disease free equilibrium using Routh Hurwitz criteria to examine its epidemiological relevance. This work also investigate the sensivity of the model with respect to the variation of each one of its parameters and is tested in application to the recent data on Covid-19 outbreak in Central Java Province, Indonesia.