Fractional Riccati equation to model the dynamics of COVID-19 coronovirus infection

Abstract

Abstract The article proposes a mathematical model based on the fractional Riccati equation to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 coronavirus infection in the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation. The model fractional Riccati equation is an equation with variable coefficients and a derivative of a fractional variable order of the Gerasimov-Caputo type. The solution to the model Riccati equation is given using the modified Newton method. The obtained model curves are compared with the experimental data of COVID-19 coronavirus infection in the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation. It is shown that with a suitable choice of parameters in the mathematical model, the calculated curves give results close to real experimental data.