Saskatchewan’s oil and gas methane: how have underestimated emissions in Canada impacted progress toward 2025 climate goals?

Abstract

Abstract Canada has set ambitious methane emission reduction targets for its oil and gas industry, and recently, the province of Saskatchewan—Canada’s second largest oil producing region—announced it has already exceeded the first of these targets. Using detailed operator-reported emissions data, published for the first time from Saskatchewan in 2022, we estimate the province’s upstream oil and gas methane inventory to independently evaluate the reported emission reductions. While the inventory suggests that Saskatchewan has surpassed its target, the inclusion of recently published site-level aerial measurement data from cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS) wells suggests that the methane inventory is underestimated by between 30% and 40%. This inventory update is supported by new regional aerial measurements confirming the continued underestimation of emissions at CHOPS wells. Since these emissions likely evade required reduction under current regulations, we evaluate achievable emission levels if such CHOPS emissions are accurately measured/reported. The results show Saskatchewan can achieve much deeper emission reductions under current regulations with improved emission measurement, reporting, and verification methods. We discuss the benefits and risks inherent in Saskatchewan’s regulatory approach where emission limits are primarily set at the operator-level.