Temporal and spatial changes in hydrological wet extremes of the largest river basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Abstract Global warming accelerates the rate of inter-regional hydrological cycles, leading to a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological wet extremes. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been experiencing a rapid warming and wetting trend for decades. This trend is especially strong for the upper Brahmaputra basin (UBB) in the southern TP. The UBB is the largest river on the TP, and these changes are likely to impact the water security of local and downstream inhabitants. This study explores the spatial-temporal variability of wet extremes in the UBB from 1981–2019 using a water- and energy-budget distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) to simulate river discharge. The simulated results were validated against observed discharge from the Ministry of Water Resources at a mid-stream location and our observations downstream. The major findings are as follows: (1) the WEB-DHM model adequately describes land-atmosphere interactions (slight underestimation of −0.26 K in simulated annual mean land surface temperature) and can accurately reproduce daily and monthly discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.662 and 0.796 respectively for Nuxia station); (2) although extreme discharge generally occurs in July and is concentrated in the southeastern TP, extreme wet events in the UBB are becoming increasingly frequent (after 1998, the number of extreme days per year increased by 13% compared to before) and intense (maximum daily discharge increased with a significant trend of 444 (m3s−1) yr−1), and are occurring across a wider region; (3) Precipitation is more likely to affect the intensity and spatial distribution of wet extremes, while the air temperature is more correlated with the frequency. Our wet extreme analysis in the UBB provides valuable insight into strategies to manage regional water resources and prevent hydrological disasters.