Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Abstract

Abstract Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping—and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization of the full (sub)system. Here, we explore tipping in conceptual, but spatially extended and spatially heterogenous models. These are extensions of conceptual models taken from all sorts of climate system components on multiple spatial scales. By analysis of the bifurcation structure of such systems, special stable equilibrium states are revealed: coexistence states with part of the spatial domain in one state, and part in another, with a spatial interface between these regions. These coexistence states critically depend on the size and the spatial heterogeneity of the (sub)system. In particular, in these systems the crossing of a tipping point not necessarily leads to a full reorganization of the system. Instead, it might lead to a reorganization of only part of the spatial domain, limiting the impact of these events on the system’s functioning.