Land cover modelling of Pelabuhanratu City in 2032 using celullar automata-markov chain method

Abstract

Abstract Pelabuhanratu located in strategic coastal area, make it as the Centre of Growth in Sukabumi District. In this regard, landcover changes continue to occur and could trigger unsustainable environmental. The purpose of this study is to analysis the land cover change of Pelabuhanratu city until 2032. The Cellular Automata-Markov is used to identify the spatial growth, several factors that encourage the landcover change used as an input. The driving factor was build based on fuzzy logic, the variables are proximity to road, proximity to river, proximity to coastline proximity to point of interest, elevation, slope and landcover. Then, suitability area for built up area as input for Cellular Automata-Markov tools. Landcover was obtained from google earth in 2002, 2010 and 2017 then used as the basis for model calculation. The prediction result shows that land cover change in Pelabuhanratu city is very significant with the Kappa Standard level reach 91% accuracy. Built up area has extended from the previous condition that coming from agricultural area. Moreover, the area growth with linear pattern at south area, spread pattern at north area and crowded at west area.