Spatial modeling of landscape and land cover pattern in Semarang City

Abstract

Abstract Semarang City is one of the largest cities in Indonesia. Tidal flooding, flash floods, sea water intrusion at the coast and landslide at the hills, are the issues the city currently dealt with as a side effect of land conversion. This study aims to analyze the landscape and land cover pattern of Semarang City in 1996, 2003, 2016 by using the landscape indices and generate spatial models of the landscape and land cover pattern of Semarang City. Landsat images from 1996, 2003 and 2016 and eight landscape indices (PD, PLAND, LPI, LSI, MNN, IJI, SHDI, and SHEI) were used to analyze landscape/land cover pattern and its change. Binary Logistic Regression and geography information system were used to build a mathematical and spatial modelling of landscape/land cover change using driving factors such as altitude, slope, land subsidence, population density, land ownership, land price, street density, drainage density, and distance from city center. Landscape indices shows that the highest land utilization (higher PD, LSI, MNN, IJI, SHDI, SHEI and lower LPI) mostly occurred at altitude 25-100 MASL (meters above sea level) in 1996 and 2003; in 2016, it occurred at altitude 100-500 MASL. In the period of 1996-2003, land fragmentation with high mixing and diversity occurred at altitude 25-100 MASL, while in the period 2003-2016, it occurred at altitude 100-500 MASL. Spatial modeling of landscape/land cover in Semarang City is best applied at altitude 100-500 MASL. The probability of landscape/land cover change is high when located at the high and flat areas, relatively high river and road density, highest population density, and lowest land price.