Enhancing dairy cow population through decreasing calf mortality and increasing calving rate in Indonesia: a system dynamics approach

Abstract

Abstract The dairy industry in Indonesia is facing significant challenges due to the rates of calf mortality and low calving rates. Calf mortality and calving rate became critical factors that influence the sustainability of the dairy cow population. This study aimed to assess reproduction management by decreasing calf mortality and increasing calving rates to enhance the dairy cow population in Indonesia. This study employed secondary data in 2022 using technical parameter coefficients from previous research. A causal loop diagram and a simulation model using a system dynamics approach were developed to investigate the dynamics of the dairy cow population under different scenarios of calf mortality and calving rates from 2023 to 2030. The results showed that decreasing calf mortality by 2% may increase dairy cow population by 1,991 head/year (0.31%), heifer population by 417 head/year (0.63%), and adult female dairy cattle population by 389 head/year (0.09%). The finding of this study also showed that increasing calving rate by 5% may increase dairy cow population by 17,854 head/year (2.75%), heifer population by 3,698 head/year (5.56%), and adult female dairy cattle population by 2,137 head/year (0.51%). It is concluded that reducing calf mortality rates and improving calving rates should be prioritized to enhance the dairy cow population in Indonesia.