A patent-based method for monitoring the development of technological innovations based on knowledge diffusion

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the diffusion patterns of knowledge in inspiring technological innovations and to enable monitoring development trends of technological innovations based on patent data analysis, thus, to manage knowledge wisely to innovate. Design/methodology/approach The notion of knowledge innovation potential (KIP) is proposed to measure the innovativeness of knowledge by the cumulative number of patents originated from its inspiration. KIP calculating formula is regressed in forms of two specific diffusion models by conducting a series of empirical studies with the patent-based indicators involving forward and backward citation numbers to reveal knowledge managing strategies regarding innovative activities. Findings Two specific diffusion models for regressing KIP formula are compared by empirical studies with the result indicating the Gompertz model has higher accuracy than the Logistic model to describe the developing curve of technological innovations. Moreover, the analysis of patent-based indicators over diffusion stages also revealed that patents applied at earlier diffusion stages normally has higher forward citation numbers indicating higher innovativeness meanwhile the patents applied at the latter stages usually requiring more knowledge inflows observed by their larger non-patent citation and backward citation amounts. Originality/value Although there is a large body of literature concerning knowledge-based technological innovation, there still room for discussing the mechanism of how knowledge diffuses and inspired knowledge. To the best of authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt to quantitate the innovativeness of knowledge in technological innovation from the knowledge diffusion perspective with findings to support rational knowledge management related to innovation activities.