Affiliation:
1. School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China
2. College of Engineering Science and Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
Abstract
A hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is a relatively practical technology that has emerged as electric vehicle technology has gradually matured. The analysis of the HEV patent lifecycle is crucial for understanding its impact on the development of this technology. This lifecycle tracks the progress of HEV technologies from their inception and patenting, through their market adoption, and to the expiration of their patent protection. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the technology lifecycle of the HEV industry using the growth S-curve method. The purpose of this study is to describe the technological lifecycle trajectory and current stage of the HEV industry, as well as the technical stages of each sub-technology, to facilitate better decision making. As part of this study, we used patent family data collected from the Derwent Innovation Index database from 1975 to 2022 and established an S-curve model for HEVs and their sub-technologies using logistic regression. In 2022, the technological maturity of HEVs reached 44%. The sub-technologies with the most substantial diffusion capabilities are energy management, propulsion systems, and cooling circuits. According to predictions, the saturation period for the patent family quantity related to HEVs is estimated to be around 53 years.