Dynamic Bayesian network modelling for predicting adaptability of time performance during time influencing factors disruptions in construction enterprise

Abstract

PurposeA construction project is complex and requires dynamic modelling of a range of factors that deters time performance because of uncertainty and varying operating conditions. In construction project systems, the system components are the interconnected stages, which are time-dependent. Within the project stages are the activities which are the subsystems of the system components, causing a challenge to the analysis of the complex system. The relationship of construction project time management (CTM) with the construction project time influencing factors (CTFs) and the adaptability of the time-varying system is a key part of project effectiveness. This study explores the relationship between CTM and CTF, including the potentials to add dynamical changes on every project stage.Design/methodology/approachThis study proposed a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to examine the relationship between CTM and CTF. The model investigates the time performance of a construction project that enhances decision-making. First, the paper establishes a model of probabilistic reasoning and directed acrylic graph (DAG). Second, the study tests the dynamic impact (IM) of CTM-CTF on the project stages over a specific time, including the adaptability of time performance during disruptive CTF events. In demonstrating the effectiveness of the model, the authors selected one-organisation-single-location road-improvement project as the case study. Next, the confirmation of the model internal validity relied on conditional probabilities and the project knowledge experts' selected from the case company.FindingsThe study produced structural dependencies of CTM and CTF with probability observations at each stage. A predictive time performance analysis of the model at different scenarios evaluates the adaptability of CTM during CTF uncertain events. The case demonstration of the model application shows that CTFs have effects on CTM strategy, creating the observations to help time performance restorations after disruptions.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the case company experts' panel confirms the internal validity of the results for managing time, the model used conditional probability table (CPT) and project state values from a project contract. A project-wide application then will require multi-case data and data-mining process for generating the CPTs.Practical implicationsThe study developed a method for evaluating both quantitative and qualitative relationships between CTM and CTF, besides the knowledge to enhance CTM practice and research. In construction, the project team can use model observations to implement time performance restorations after a predictive or reactive disruption, which enhances decision-making.Originality/valueThe model used qualitative and qualitative data of a complex system to generate results, bounded by a range of probability distributions for CTM-CTF interconnections during time performance disruptions and restorations. The research explores the approach that can complement the mental CTM-CTF modeling of the project team. The CTM-CTF relationship model developed in this research is fundamental knowledge for future research, besides the valuable insight into CTF influence on CTM.