Delphi study for evaluating key risk factors inherent in public-private partnership (PPP) power projects in Ghana

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the key risk factors inherent in public–private partnership (PPP) power projects in Ghana and further determine the critical risk factors affecting both the public and private sectors in PPP power projects. Design/methodology/approach Ranking-type Delphi survey in two rounds was conducted to establish a comprehensive list of critical risk factors of PPP. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques helped obtain experts for the Delphi survey. Mean score ranking, factor analysis, Cronbach α coefficient and Kendall’s concordance were used for analysis. The probability of occurrence and severity of each risk factor were computed to obtain the risk impact. Findings From the list of 67 risks, 37 risk factors were deemed to be critical. The five topmost risk factors were: delay payment on contract, private investor change, political risks, fluctuating demand of power generated and public opposition. Principal component analysis grouped the risk factors into seven major themes. Originality/value This study develops an authoritative risk factor list for PPP power projects, which reflects both sector and country conditions for prioritizing and mitigating risk factors. Delphi approach adopted in this study can be used by future studies in similar environments where PPP is novel and expert respondents scarce.