Determinants of the risk perception of farmer–herder conflicts: evidence from rural Nigeria

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the social, economic and demographic determinants of rural households' risk perception of farmer–herder (FH) conflicts in Nigeria. The paper also investigates two aspects of FH conflict risk perception relating to food production and physical insecurity.Design/methodology/approachA FH conflict risk perception model is constructed and tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), ordinary least squares (OLS) and seemingly unrelated regression equation (SURE) models. The study uses cross-sectional data from 401 rural households in Nigeria.FindingsResults show that in addition to economic determinants like farm size, land ownership and crop diversity, socio-demographic variables like age and number of languages spoken are significant predictors of household risk perception of FH conflict. Second, although gender and frequency of FH conflict have no significant effect on the risk perception of FH conflict, there is a significant moderating effect of frequency of FH conflicts on the influence of gender on the risk perception of FH conflict. Third, findings also highlight the important predictors of the risk perception of FH conflicts relating to food production and physical insecurity.Originality/valueFindings give insight into policies targeted at influencing the risk behaviour of rural households. This is important to aid the development of efficient risk management initiatives.