Assessing the predictability of construction time overruns using multiple linear regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to focus on developing a baseline model for time overrun. Design/methodology/approach Information on 321 completed construction projects used to assess the predictive performance of two statistical techniques, namely, multiple regression and the Bayesian approach. Findings The eventual results from the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo model were observed to improve the predictive ability of the model compared with multiple linear regression. Besides the unique nuances peculiar with projects executed, the scope factors initial duration, gross floor area and number of storeys have been observed to be stable predictors of time overrun. Originality/value This current model contributes to improving the reliability of predicting time overruns.