An analytic network process for risks assessment in commercial real estate development

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel decision‐making approach to risks assessment in commercial real estate development against social, economic, environmental, and technological (SEET) criteria. It therefore aims to describe a multiple criteria decision‐making model based on analytic network process (ANP) theory, and to use an experimental case study on an urban regeneration project in Liverpool to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANP model.Design/methodology/approachThe paper commences with a description about risks related to commercial real estate development, and provides a list of risk assessment criteria based on literature review and experience in related areas. The ANP is then introduced as a powerful multicriteria decision‐making method. An experimental case study is finally conducted with scenarios and assumptions based on a real urban regeneration project in Liverpool.FindingsThe paper defines a group of risks assessment criteria against SEET requirements directly related to commercial real estate development. An ANP model is set up with 29 risks assessment criteria, and results from an experimental case study reveal that the ANP method is effective to support decision‐making based on risks assessment to select the most appropriate development plan; and therefore it is applicable in commercial area.Originality/valueThis paper defines SEET criteria for risks assessment in regard to SEET requirements to emphasise sustainable development; while the ANP is introduced to assess risks in commercial real estate development. The ANP model provides a platform for decision makers in commercial real estate development to evaluate different plans based on the degree of interactions among risk assessment criteria.