Socio-ecological risks management dynamic simulation in megaproject development of the Edinburgh Tram Network

Abstract

PurposeThe inherent risks and their interactive impacts in megaproject development have been found in numerous cases worldwide. Although risk management standards have been recommended for the best practice in engineering construction projects, there is still a lack of systematic approaches to describing the interactions. Interactions such as social, technical, economic, ecological and political (STEEP) risks have complex and dynamic implications for megaproject construction. For a better understanding and effective management of megaprojects such as the Edinburgh Tram project, the dynamic interaction of concomitant risks must be studied.Design/methodology/approachA systems dynamic methodology was adopted following the comprehensive literature review. Documentary data were gathered from the case study on Tram Network Project in Edinburgh.FindingsA casual loop of typical evolution of key indicators of risks was then developed. A hypothesised model of social and ecological (SE) risks was derived using the system dynamics (SD) modelling technique. The model was set up following British Standards on risk management to provide a generic tool for risk management in megaproject development. The study reveals that cost and time overruns at the developmental stage of the case project are caused mainly by the effects of interactions of risk factors from the external macro project environment on a timely basis.Originality/valueThis article presented a model for simulating the socio-ecological risk confronting the management and construction of megaprojects. The use of SD provided the opportunity to explain the nature of all risks, particularly the SE risks in the past stages of project development.