Discrete choice and survival models in employee turnover analysis

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the capacity of two methodological approaches – discrete choice and survival analysis models – to investigate the relationship between socio-economic characteristics and turnover in a retailing company. A comparison of the estimation results under each model and their interpretation is carried out. The study provides a guide to determine, assess and interpret the effects of different driving factors behind turnover. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a data set containing information about 1,199 workers followed up between January 2007 and December 2009. First, not distinguishing voluntary and involuntary resignation, a binary logistic regression model and a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model for univariate survival data are set up and estimated. Second, distinguishing voluntary and involuntary resignation, a multinomial logistic regression model and a Cox PH model for competing risk data are set up and estimated. Findings When no distinction is made, the results point that wage and age exert a negative effect on turnover. Risk of resignation is higher for male, single, not married and Spanish nationals. When the distinction is made, previous results hold for voluntary turnover: wage, age, gender, marital status and nationality are significant. However, when explaining involuntary turnover, all variables except wage lose explaining power. The survival analysis approach is better suited as it measures risk of resignation in a longitudinal way. Discrete choice models only study the risk at a particular cut-off point (24 months in case of this study). Originality/value This paper is a systematic application, evaluation and comparison of four different statistical models for analysing employee turnover in a single firm. This work is original because no systematic comparison has been done in the context of turnover.