Expert judgment in forecasting construction project completion

Abstract

Construction projects are susceptible to cost and time overruns. Variations from planned schedule and cost estimates can result in huge losses for owners and contractors. In extreme cases, the viability of the project itself is jeopardised as a result of variations from baseline plans. Hence new methods and techniques which assist project managers in forecasting the expected variance in schedule and cost should be developed. This paper proposes a judgment‐based forecasting approach which will identify schedule variances from a baseline plan for typical construction projects. The proposed forecasting approach adopts multiple regression techniques and further utilises neural networks to capture the decision‐making procedure of project experts involved in schedule monitoring and prediction. The models developed were applied to a multistorey building project under construction and were found feasible for use in similar construction projects. The advantages and limitations of these two modelling process for prediction of schedule variance are discussed. The developed models were integrated with existing project management computer systems for the convenient and realistic generation of revised schedules at appropriate junctures during the progress of the project.