Analysis of pipe-bursting construction risks using probability-impact model

Abstract

Purpose Civil utility projects, both open-trench and trenchless, are subject to risk. These risks have both direct and indirect effect on project cost, schedule, quality and safety. It is therefore critical for the project management team to include risk management as an integral part of their project planning and execution. The purpose of this study is to identify the pipe-bursting construction risks and determine their probability of occurrence and cost impact and provide the appropriate responses to mitigate the identified risks. Design/methodology/approach This is an exploratory design using an industry-wide questionnaire survey to collect data on the probability of occurrence and impact of risks on cost of pipe-bursting projects. A probability-impact model was used to categorize the risks to determine their criticality and the appropriate risk responses. Findings The model revealed that majority of the analyzed risks have low impact-low probability of occurrence and high impact-low probability of occurrence. Undocumented repairs to host pipe was the only risk identified as having high probability of occurrence and high impact on cost. The risk responses suggest a combination of risk transfer, reduction and acceptance to be appropriately applied to mitigate the risks. A discussion on the good practices indicates that most pipe-bursting operations can be done safely and successfully if site and project conditions are known before bursting and the appropriate measures are taken to address those conditions. Research limitations/implications Although the identified risks may apply to other utility construction methods, the focus of this research is limited to risks that occur during the construction phase of a pipe-bursting construction project. Practical implications Risk management is very critical to the success of any construction project. Identification and assessment of risks alone will not serve the purpose of risk management unless meaningful ways to mitigate those risks in a structured way are planned. The probability-impact model for the pipe-bursting construction risks with the mitigation strategies will help owners, engineers and contractors plan for and adequately respond to these risks. Additionally, a logical assessment of the risks will aid in effective decision-making regarding the management of the project. Originality/value Extensive literature review indicates that there is no existing literature on the probability of occurrence and impact on cost of risks in pipe-bursting projects. This paper presents the results of a wide-ranging analysis on construction risks in pipe-bursting projects. This is the first analysis incorporating the use of the probability-impact model to determine the criticality of various pipe-bursting construction risks.