A hybrid model for customer portfolio analysis in retailing

Abstract

Purpose Marketing/finance interface and application of its new insights in marketing decisions have recently found great interest among marketing researchers and practitioners. There is a relatively large body of marketing literature about incorporating modern portfolio theory (MPT) into customer portfolio context and taking advantage of it in marketing resource allocation decisions. Previous studies have modelled customer portfolio risk in the form of historical return/profitability volatility of customer base. However, the risk is a future-oriented measure, and deals with future volatility associated with return stream. This study aims to address this research problem. Design/methodology/approach The well-known Pareto/non-binomial distribution (NBD) approach is used to model customer purchases in a non-contractual setting of research practice. Then, the results were used to simulate the customers’ future buying behaviour and associated returns via the Monte Carlo simulation approach. Subsequently, the mean-variance portfolio optimization model was applied to find the optimal customer portfolio mix. Findings The results illustrated the better performance of the proposed efficient portfolio versus the current customer portfolio. These results are applicable in analyzing customer portfolio composition, and can be used as a guidance to make decisions about marketing resource allocation in different segments. Originality/value This study proposes a new approach to analyze customer portfolio by using the customers’ future buying behaviour. Taking advantage of rich marketing literature about statistical assumptions describing the customers’ buying behaviour, this study tries to take some steps forward in the application of the MPT theory in customer portfolio management context.