The voice of profit: exploring the tone of Australian CEO's letters to shareholders after the global financial crisis

Abstract

PurposeThis study examines the association between firm profitability and the “voice” of the CEO measured through tones they convey in their annual letter to shareholders. The paper examines whether the tones corresponds to a firm's profitability and the extent to which CEO tone varies with changes in profitability.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyze 187 Australian CEOs communications in 748 annual letters to their shareholders between 2010 and 2013. Two-word lists created by previous researchers are used to assess tones for their positive-negative plurality, uncertainty and use of modal words. Firm profitability is identified using return on assets. The authors examine the relationship between profitability and tones using simple ANOVA as well as a linear mixed model and then a change (differences) model. The change model captures any inertia or genre effect in the CEO letter to shareholders.FindingsUsing both the level and change model, the authors find that firm profitability is associated with CEO's tones that are more optimistic and less pessimistic. The authors also find that the use of negative words has more communicative value than positive words or “net” positive words. The authors also observe some genre effect when CEOs use strong modal words.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample is restricted to a selection of Australian firms that had the same CEO for the fiscal years 2010–2013; which reported in each financial year and which survived the global financial crisis. Generalizing the findings to other periods, types of firms, or to CEOs with shorter tenure, might be questionable. This study was conducted in Australia, which may limit the applicability of the findings to other jurisdictions.Practical implicationsThe significant link between firm profitability and CEOs' use of positive, net positive and negative words implies that investors may place reliance on the use of these tones in the CEO's annual letter to accurately reflect the profitability of the firm.Originality/valueThe study extends the existing literature by examining whether a change in firm profitability is linked to a change in CEO tone. It concludes that even in periods of general financial stress, shareholders should be confident that CEOs' letters to shareholders provide credible information that corresponds to firm performance.