Grey prediction model‐based food security early warning prediction

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to make an evaluation and early warning prediction using grey prediction models and the index of process ability.Design/methodology/approachAn early warning prediction for food security risk is proposed in this paper. A quality index is constructed and an improved grey prediction model is also presented. The quality index model is applied to measure the level of food quality; then the grey prediction model is applied to predict the trend of quality index for food in the future. A comparison between the predicted trends and standard limit proposed by experts is made to judge the food security risk.FindingsThe results in this paper indicate that more attention should be paid to the food security situation and steps should also should be taken to prevent harm to people's health from food.Practical implicationsThe method presented in the paper could be used to make predictions for those systems which have the characteristic of small sample and poor information. The combination of grey prediction model and process ability index could also be applied to evaluation and early warning for those systems.Originality/valueFood quality index is constructed for evaluating food security and an improved grey prediction model is also presented in this paper. The combination of these two models could be applied to make evaluation and warning prediction for food security risk with poor information.