Brexit anticipated economic shock on Ireland’s planning for hospitality and tourism: resilience, volatility and exposure

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore tourism scenario planning for an anticipated shock as viewed through the lens of Irish hospitality managers preparing for Brexit. The research appropriates a climate science framework to structure the study, situating preparations, or lack thereof, against the themes of volatility, exposure and resilience. Design/methodology/approach The research uses a qualitative, pragmatic approach to determine how senior Irish hospitality managers were preparing for Britain’s exit from the European Union. Semi-structured interviews were used to gather data conducted with hotel management, industry federations and tourism policymakers. Findings Buoyancy of the industry, from an industry perspective, little foreseeable threat to the sector, has caused management to develop complacent tendencies, a myopic viewpoint and a head-in-the-sand mindset. Their “wait and see” and “ad hoc” approaches to planning for an anticipated shock suggest an industry that believes itself to be resistant to threats. Practical implications The findings suggest that although tourism has been resilient to economic shocks in the past, historical lessons learned have not been implemented in anticipation of the next shock. More proactive engagement and better strategic preparedness is necessary to mitigate the impacts of future shocks. Industry needs to acknowledge its role in developing resilience and reducing volatility and exposure. The government additionally needs to coordinate initiatives with industry to develop robustness. Originality/value The paper demonstrates areas of practice in the hospitality industry that could be improved to reduce volatility and exposure, enhance resilience and encourage rapid adaptability post crisis.