Concurrent warming and browning eliminate cold-water fish habitat in many temperate lakes

Abstract

Cold-water species in temperate lakes face two simultaneous climate-driven ecosystem changes: warming and browning of their waters. Browning refers to reduced transparency arising from increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which absorbs solar energy near the surface. It is unclear whether the net effect is mitigation or amplification of climate warming impacts on suitable oxythermal habitat (<20 °C, >5 mgO/L) for cold-loving species because browning expands the vertical distribution of both cool water and oxygen depletion. We analyzed long-term trends and high-frequency sensor data from browning lakes in New York’s Adirondack region to assess the contemporary status of summertime habitat for lacustrine brook trout. Across two decades, surface temperatures increased twice as fast and bottom dissolved oxygen declined >180% faster than average trends for temperate lakes. We identify four lake categories based on oxythermal habitat metrics: constrained, squeezed, overheated, and buffered. In most of our study lakes, trout face either seasonal loss (7 of 15) or dramatic restriction (12 to 21% of the water column; 5 of 15) of suitable habitat. These sobering statistics reflect rapid upward expansion of oxygen depletion in lakes with moderate or high DOC relative to compression of heat penetration. Only in very clear lakes has browning potentially mitigated climate warming. Applying our findings to extensive survey data suggests that decades of browning have reduced oxythermal refugia in most Adirondack lakes. We conclude that joint warming and browning may preclude self-sustaining cold-water fisheries in many temperate lakes; hence, oxythermal categorization is essential to guide triage strategies and management interventions.